Political insiders are preparing for a November scenario where former President Donald Trump will call the election early and declare victory before all the ballots are counted. As Election Day approaches, analysts are drawing parallels to previous elections, particularly the contentious 2020 race. The anticipation of early declarations is causing concern among political experts, especially in light of the evolving electoral landscape in the U.S.
Election Day has morphed into election week in the U.S. Pollsters and analysts do not expect votes to be fully tabulated by the night of November 5, and projections of who will win in key battleground states may not come for days, much like the 2020 race. In that year, the election was held on November 3, and most news organizations did not call the race until November 7.
However, Trump could move quickly and announce he had won before a final result comes, much as he did in 2020. Because in-person votes are generally counted quicker than the time it takes to process mail ballots, Republicans can appear to have the lead on election nights, only for that lead to disappear once all the votes are tabulated.
Shortly after midnight on November 3, 2020, Trump declared himself the winner, even as contests in battleground states remained too close to call. This declaration was met with sharp rebuke from Trump's fellow Republicans, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who expressed distress over Trump's claims of voter fraud.
Implications of Trump's Early Declaration
The ramifications of Trump potentially calling the election early could be significant. Political experts suggest that such a move could undermine public trust in the electoral process. Bob Beatty, chair of Washburn University's political science department, argues that Trump's behavior in past elections serves as a strong indication of his future actions. He is likely to call the election early regardless of the actual results, fostering mistrust among voters.
Trump's declaration could embolden local officials responsible for certifying votes, leading to a situation where they might hesitate to confirm results if Trump has already claimed victory. This scenario is particularly concerning if the race is too close to call, as Trump could label any late-counted votes favoring his opponent as "rigged."
Moreover, David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University, notes that while Trump's early declaration may create political chaos, it carries no legal weight. Ultimately, if Trump loses, he faces the reality of defeat, regardless of his declarations.
Early Voting and Its Impact on Election Dynamics
One notable change since the last election is Trump's approach to early voting. In 2020, he claimed that mail-in ballots and early in-person voting were sources of widespread fraud. However, this year, he has shifted his stance and even encouraged early voting efforts, particularly in states like North Carolina.
Data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida shows that nearly 25 million Americans have already cast their ballots, with a significant number of registered Republicans participating ahead of Election Day. This surge in early voting could affect how Trump navigates the election results, especially if he finds himself trailing on Election Day.
Schultz emphasizes that if Trump embraces early voting, the anticipated "red mirage"—a scenario where GOP candidates initially appear to lead on election night—is less likely. Instead, he may need to recalibrate his strategy for claiming an early victory if early voter turnout shifts the dynamics in favor of Democrats.
Will Trump Concede if He Loses?
The question of whether Trump will concede gracefully if he loses remains a hot topic of debate. The January 6 Capitol riot has heightened concerns about his response to a potential defeat. Trump's national spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, reassures that there will be a peaceful transfer of power, stating that Trump has consistently advocated for free and fair elections.
Regardless of the outcome, the political landscape leading up to the election is fraught with uncertainty. As the election nears, both candidates and voters must prepare for the potential turbulence that could arise from early declarations and contested results.
As we approach the pivotal November elections, all eyes will be on Trump's actions and the broader implications for American democracy. Voters are faced with significant choices that will shape the future of the nation.
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