Predicting The 2024 Election: Unique Indicators For Trump Vs. Harris

Who will win: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Election Day is less than 30 days away, and pollsters and pundits have been racing to predict the result in what is shaping up to be a very close race. From the polls to betting markets and Allan Lichtman's famous "Keys" model, there is seemingly no end to the different prediction methods. But some are less conventional than others. What if you used candidate height, astrology, or cookie sales to predict the election outcome? As November 5 approaches, Newsweek looked at five unusual indicators that could predict who will win the White House.

The upcoming election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is not just a battle of policies and ideologies; it's also a contest of predictions. Various methods have been employed over the years to forecast election outcomes, from traditional polling to more whimsical approaches. Understanding these indicators can provide insight into the dynamics of the race and what voters may be thinking as they head to the polls.

Exploring Unconventional Election Prediction Methods

As we delve deeper into the intricacies of the upcoming election, it's essential to examine some unconventional methods that have emerged as potential indicators of success. These methods may seem quirky, yet they offer a fascinating perspective on electoral behavior. From astrological insights to cookie sales, these unusual predictors have sparked curiosity and debate among analysts and voters alike.

While traditional polling and statistical modeling remain the backbone of election forecasting, these alternative approaches can add a layer of intrigue. As we explore these methods, we'll be looking at their historical relevance and the insights they might provide in the context of the current political landscape.

The S&P 500 Index: A Financial Indicator

The S&P 500 index serves as a surprising yet reliable indicator of election outcomes. According to broker-dealer LPL Financial, if the S&P 500 is up between August and November, the incumbent party is likely to retain the White House. Conversely, if the index experiences losses during this period, it generally signifies a loss for the incumbent party. This correlation has proven accurate in 21 out of the last 24 elections.

For instance, the stock market's performance before elections has historically aligned with presidential outcomes, as seen in the elections of Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama. Currently, the S&P 500 has shown a rise of more than 12 percent since August 5, suggesting a favorable outlook for Harris, should this trend continue.

Candidate Height: A Tall Tale?

Throughout history, the tallest candidate often wins the election, a phenomenon that has intrigued political analysts. In 18 of the last 24 elections, this "tallest person wins" logic has held true. However, this rule has seen inconsistencies in recent decades, as observed with candidates like George W. Bush and Joe Biden, who both triumphed despite being shorter than their opponents. In this election, Trump stands tall at 6'3", while Harris measures 5'4.5".

If the trend holds, Trump's stature could give him an edge over Harris. Yet, if Harris manages to defy this conventional wisdom, she could become the shortest president since James Madison, which would mark a significant historical shift.

Sports and Elections: The Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule presents an unusual correlation between NFL game outcomes and presidential elections. Established by sports analysts, the rule states that if the Washington Redskins (now the Commanders) win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party usually retains power. If they lose, the out-of-power party often wins. This quirky prediction method held true from 1940 to 2000, but recent elections have shown that it might not always be reliable.

In a dramatic recent game, the Commanders defeated the Chicago Bears, suggesting a potential advantage for the incumbent party. However, given the complexities of current polling, Harris might need more than just a football victory to secure her position on Election Day.

Cookie Sales: A Sweet Prediction

Busken Bakery in Cincinnati has developed a unique approach to predicting elections through cookie sales. Since 1984, the bakery has recorded which candidate's cookie sells more, with surprisingly high accuracy. The cookie poll has accurately predicted the election winner nine out of ten times, making it a delightful yet meaningful barometer of public sentiment.

As of the latest count, Trump's cookie sales are leading with 29,658, while Harris trails with 11,356. This 9.5 percent increase for Trump and a 10.2 percent increase for Harris since the previous week reflects the dynamic nature of voter preferences leading up to the election.

Astrology: Celestial Insights into Politics

Astrology has long been intertwined with political forecasting, dating back to ancient civilizations. Notably, former first lady Nancy Reagan consulted astrologers after a life-threatening event involving her husband. Astrologer Nadiya Shah emphasizes that astrology can provide insights into changes in leadership, using the birth charts of candidates to predict their potential for success.

Astrologers believe that significant celestial events can indicate major shifts in leadership. With Jupiter currently positioned in Gemini—a critical sign for both Trump and Harris—predictions remain uncertain, suggesting an even playing field.

Expert Opinions on Predictions

Astrologers are often divided on their predictions, influenced by personal biases and the methods they employ. Shah's insights highlight the complexities of astrological interpretations, which can vary widely among practitioners. As the election approaches, these predictions, whether through financial indicators, quirky polls, or celestial observations, continue to engage and entertain the public.

Ultimately, the race between Trump and Harris remains highly competitive, with various unconventional methods attempting to unravel the mystery of who will emerge victorious. As election day nears, voters and analysts alike will be keenly watching the developments in both the political and predictive landscapes.

In conclusion, the outcome of the presidential election may hinge on a myriad of factors, from traditional polling to unconventional indicators like cookie sales and astrology. As these diverse methods offer insights, they also provide a glimpse into the ever-evolving nature of political analysis in today's society.