Majority Of Americans Predict Kamala Harris Will Win The 2024 Election

The majority of Americans still believe that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, according to a new poll. This belief reflects a significant sentiment among voters as the presidential race heats up. The survey, conducted by Verasight at the end of September, aimed to gauge expectations rather than voting intentions, a method referred to as "citizen forecasting." This approach has shown to be more accurate in predicting election outcomes, providing valuable insights into the current political landscape.

The poll revealed that 55 percent of respondents expect Harris to win, which is a slight decrease of one percentage point from the previous survey in August. Notably, this puts her 13 points ahead of former President Donald Trump. Importantly, both candidates are closely matched in traditional polling, indicating that the 2024 election could be one of the closest in recent history.

According to Rajiv Sethi from Columbia University, "Citizen forecasting effectively multiplies the sample size, since the survey reaches beyond the direct respondent and incorporates information about the vote intentions of those in the respondent's social network." This insight emphasizes the potential for larger sample sizes to provide more accurate forecasts, ensuring that the predictions reflect a broader consensus among the electorate.

Verasight's earlier polling in June and July had shown Trump leading against President Joe Biden. However, the dynamics have shifted with Harris stepping into the spotlight, suggesting a reversal of fortunes for the Democratic Party. In an analysis featured in Sabato's Crystal Ball, the authors noted that "a Harris victory is expected by most major demographic groups." This highlights a widespread confidence in Harris's prospects among various voter demographics.

While close races can be challenging to predict, historical data from 1956 to 2020 indicates that when the expectation percentage exceeds 50 percent, the forecast for the presidential winner has consistently been accurate. As we approach the election, it will be interesting to see how these expectations evolve and whether they hold true as November approaches.

Fifty-four percent of men and 56 percent of women across all age groups predict Harris will win in November. Interestingly, Trump has strong support among individuals with high school diplomas (50 percent of that demographic predict him winning) and Republicans, where a substantial 84 percent expect him to secure victory.

In conclusion, the authors of the survey highlight that in an uncertain election landscape, citizens are conveying a clearer narrative about predicted winners, emphasizing that November will ultimately serve as the definitive test of these forecasts. Recent developments, such as the unsealing of special counsel Jack Smith's legal filings and other events surrounding Trump, along with challenges faced by Harris, may alter the political dynamics leading up to the election.

Ultimately, as we inch closer to the election, numerous factors will undoubtedly play a role in shaping voter sentiment and expectations. Whether these predictions hold true will depend on how the political climate evolves in the coming weeks.