Trump Leads Harris By Nine Points In Florida Ahead Of Election Day

One of the last polls in Florida before Election Day puts a presidential candidate ahead of their rival by nine points—a potential winning margin not seen since 1988. The Florida Atlantic University survey showed that if the election were to be held today, former President Donald Trump would receive 53 percent of the state's vote, against 44 percent for Vice President Kamala Harris. This significant shift highlights the changing political landscape as the election date draws near.

Trump's share had jumped from 50 percent in August, while Harris' had fallen from 47 percent. Nationally, the FAU had Harris leading Trump 49 to 47 percent, demonstrating the tight nature of the 2024 election with less than a week to go. "If Harris were to win, no one should be surprised," Robert Martin, senior data analyst for Mainstreet Research, said on Tuesday. "If Trump were to win, no one should be surprised."

With only one week until Election Day, the stakes could not be higher. Trump's apparent lead among Floridians would mean his highest support in the state since he entered politics in 2016. That year, he won with 49 percent of the vote; in 2020, it was 51.2 percent. The last time the gap between the Republican and Democratic nominees was larger than six points was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush received 60.9 percent of the vote, compared to 38.5 percent for Michael Dukakis.

Across the past few months, polling has consistently shown the Republican candidate leading his Democratic rival in the Sunshine State, which has mainly voted red in six of the last nine general elections. Florida is a crucial state with significant electoral votes, and both campaigns are paying close attention to the shifting dynamics.

Rachel Reisner, Team Trump Director of Regional Communications, stated, “Florida is Trump country. Thousands of Republicans are fleeing blue states, frustrated by the failures of Harris and the Democrats.” This sentiment underscores the importance of Florida as a key battleground in the upcoming elections.

Another recent poll indicated that Floridians hold a negative view of both candidates, reflecting a growing distrust of national politics. Florida holds 30 Electoral College votes this year, up from 29 four years ago, but neither campaign has focused heavily on the state, preferring to concentrate on seven battleground states that could sway either way on November 5, while Florida appears likely to remain Republican.

This latest FAU polling asked voters about two down-ballot measures: legalizing marijuana for those over 21 and an amendment that would guarantee abortions up until fetus viability. On the first issue, 60 percent of respondents indicated support for legalizing weed, while 34 percent opposed it. Regarding abortion rights—an issue Trump has stated he wants to return to the states following the overturning of Roe v. Wade—58 percent favored the amendment, while 32 percent opposed it. Currently, a six-week ban is in place.