Population Growth Trends In New Jersey: A Closer Look

Over the last decade, the population has continued to grow in America's most densely populated state. New Jersey, often referred to as the Garden State, has experienced a complex demographic landscape marked by both growth and decline in different regions. While overall growth in New Jersey has slowed in recent years, half of the counties in the Garden State are still expanding, showcasing a unique narrative of urban migration and demographic shifts.

According to local government reports, New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the U.S. and the eleventh most populated, with 9,290,841 residents according to July 2023 Census data. The state's population dynamics are influenced by various factors, including economic opportunities, housing availability, and the proximity to major metropolitan areas like New York City. The top five most populated counties in New Jersey—Bergen, Middlesex, Essex, Hudson, and Monmouth—are adjacent to New York City, with many residents commuting to the metropolis.

However, the pandemic has altered commuting patterns, leading to fewer people choosing to move and commute to the Big Apple. This trend is reflected in New Jersey's county population data, revealing how external factors can significantly impact local demographics. The map below illustrates which New Jersey counties have grown and shrunk over the last three years, providing a visual representation of these changes.

The following five counties have seen the most significant increase in population over the last three years:

1. Ocean County—3 percent increase in population
2. Burlington County—2 percent
3. Gloucester County—2 percent
4. Sussex County—2 percent
5. Warren County—2 percent

Meanwhile, these are the five counties that have shrunk the most:

1. Hudson County—2 percent decrease in population
2. Passaic—2 percent
3. Cumberland—1 percent
4. Essex—1 percent
5. Mercer—1 percent

While immigration between states and counties accounts for some of this change, Ocean County, in particular, has seen the highest birth rates in the state, contributing to the county's fast growth rate. In 2022, the county reported 15.6 births per 1,000 residents, compared to the national average of 11.0 and the statewide average of 11.1. However, this was followed by the fastest shrinking county, Hudson County, at 12.9 births per 1,000 residents.

The lowest birth rates were seen in Cape May, at 7.9 births per 1,000 residents. Statewide, the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development has projected that the Garden State's population will continue to grow by 0.43 percent a year between 2020 and 2030, reaching 9.65 million residents by the end of the decade. However, the department also predicts that the state's population will get older, with 1 in 5 residents being over the age of 65 by 2030, compared to less than 1 in 7 in 2010.

This raises important questions for policy, especially for health care, transportation, and other key services. As New Jersey navigates these demographic changes, understanding the factors behind population growth and decline will be essential for effective planning and resource allocation.