Trump Vs. Harris: Latest Polls Show No Change In The Presidential Race

New polls released Tuesday by Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos show no change in the presidential contest. Former President Donald Trump remains 4 and 3 percentage points behind Vice President Kamala Harris, respectively, in both surveys. Morning Consult found Trump had 46 percent support to Harris' 50 percent—consistent with last week's result—while Reuters/Ipsos showed Trump and Harris both up 1 percent from their survey a week ago, at 43 percent and 46 percent, respectively. Last week, Reuters/Ipsos had Trump at 42 percent and Harris at 45 percent.

"Numbers have been stable and they show a plus-4 advantage still," Rachel Bitecofer, an election forecaster turned political strategist who correctly predicted the "blue wave" in the 2018 midterms and then President Joe Biden's win in 2020, told Newsweek. "There's no movement."

But some believe there is still room for Trump to move up. Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist and co-CEO of UpShift Strategies, told Newsweek that with all the available poll results still within the margin of error—and a race this close—those numbers don't tell us much about what will happen on November 5. "The race is a toss-up today. It will remain a toss-up through Election Day," he said. "If low-propensity voters show up, Trump could outperform his 2020 numbers. But if the anti-MAGA coalition shows up in the numbers it has in 2018, 2020 and 2022, it won't matter if Trump beats his 2020 numbers."

Instead of looking at the polls, Gordon said, there may be clearer signs in Trump's and Harris' get-out-the-vote efforts in these last weeks. Republican consultant Matt Klink, on the other hand, told Newsweek that the answer could lie in swing state polling.

Swing State Polling

Klink, who said Trump is "surging" in key swing states, called national polls "meaningless" and predicted that liberal voters in major U.S. cities would ensure that Harris wins the popular vote. He said another indication that the political tides are shifting toward Trump is the change in campaign strategy by vulnerable Democrats like Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, who has distanced himself from Biden and highlighted his support for Trump's policies in a new campaign ad.

Spiro Amburn, a GOP strategist and senior vice president at Georgia-based McGuireWoods Consulting, agreed that changes in swing state polling are more important to watch than those in national polling. He told Newsweek that while Trump's momentum hasn't yet stalled in the Peach State, "a ceiling does exist."

Georgia

In Georgia, Trump has made some gains in the last few weeks. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll conducted between October 16 and 18 showed him 1 point ahead. The pollster's surveys from earlier this month and late September showed Trump and Harris locked in a tie. An AtlasIntel poll, conducted between October 12 and 17, also found Trump up a point in Georgia and leading by 2 points this month, compared with its poll from last month that showed the former president with a 1-point advantage.

"There is a small percentage of undecided voters," Amburn said. "The question is whether Republican voters who did not vote for Trump in 2020 will show up for him this time. This could be the difference in winning or losing by a percentage point. Harris seems to have momentum with new voters."

Other Swing States With Slight Momentum

Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada all appear to be seeing some shifts in their battleground polls. Both Redfield & Wilton Strategies and New York Times/Siena College show in their polling Trump gaining 1 point over Harris in Arizona between last month and this month. An AtlasIntel survey, however, showed Trump losing a point.

Trump has made significant inroads in Michigan, according to polls from RMG Research and InsiderAdvantage. After finding Harris with an 8-point lead late last month, RMG saw a tied race in its October poll. InsiderAdvantage had Trump up 1 point last month but 2 points this month. AtlasIntel saw no change, with Trump leading in Michigan by 3 points in both September and October.

AtlasIntel did see a change in Wisconsin, however. Last month, the pollster found Trump leading by 2 points but Harris with the advantage this month, leading by 1 point. Emerson College's polling showed Trump down by 1 point this month after his 2-point lead last month.

Things appear to be shifting in Nevada, although it's unclear in whose favor, polls from InsiderAdvantage and AtlasIntel show. InsiderAdvantage's October poll found Harris