Fox News Shifts Arizona Election Forecast: Trump Gains Ground

In a significant change of political landscape, Fox News has switched its election forecast for Arizona from a tossup to lean-Republican, signaling a prediction of victory for former President Donald Trump in the Grand Canyon State. This announcement was made by host Bill Hemmer on America's Newsroom. He indicated that despite the shift, a Kamala Harris victory in the Electoral College remains a "plausible" outcome, even if she does not win Arizona.

The basis for this shift in the network's state forecast, termed "power rankings," comes from an analysis of eight polls conducted in Arizona since early September. Notably, Trump led in seven of those polls, while Harris only led in one, highlighting the growing support for Trump in the state. Newsweek has reached out to both campaign teams for comments regarding this development.

Polling data across 43 states suggests that voters are likely to support one of the two major party candidates in the upcoming election. However, the remaining seven states are deemed competitive battlegrounds. Candidates must win a specific combination of votes in these states to achieve the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

Arizona is among seven battleground states that hold critical importance for both candidates. These states include Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. In the shifting landscape of this election, maintaining a lead in Arizona could be pivotal for Trump's campaign.

With Fox News now rating Arizona as "lean-Republican," Harris's team still sees a possible path to victory through other swing states. Hemmer emphasized that winning back the "Blue Wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, along with one electoral vote from Nebraska, could still get her to the 270 mark needed to secure the presidency.

However, based on Fox News's updated Power Rankings, three Blue Wall states have shifted from lean-Democrat to tossup. This adjustment suggests that six out of seven battleground states are now considered toss-ups, indicating a highly competitive race ahead.