Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots in the 2024 election, although the results of early voting only offer a peek into how candidates are performing in what’s expected to be one of the closest elections in history. As we approach the crucial Election Day, it's essential to understand the dynamics of early voting and its implications. Nearly every state offers some form of early voting in the weeks leading up to this significant event. On Monday, the polls opened in Florida and Texas, while key swing states like Georgia and Nevada opened their polling booths last week.
Preliminary polling has shown that Vice President Kamala Harris is well ahead of former President Donald Trump among voters who turned out early. However, this lead is hardly indicative of who is ahead overall. Democratic voters are typically more in favor of early voting than Republicans, and Trump has repeatedly claimed, without merit, that mail-in voting options invite the chance for election fraud. But this fall, Trump and the GOP switched course, encouraging voters to turn in a ballot in any way they can, although Trump has still described early voting as "stupid stuff."
"We got to get out and vote," the Republican nominee told supporters at a rally in Pennsylvania last month. "And you can start right away. You know that, right? Now we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early. I wonder what the hell happens during that 45." The varying approaches to early voting reflect the ongoing tension in American politics, as both parties aim to mobilize their bases and secure critical votes ahead of the November 5 election.
Where Has Early Voting Begun?
Forty-seven states, as well as the District of Columbia, offer early voting and mail-in ballots to all registered voters. The dates for early voting vary significantly by state. Polling locations in Minnesota, South Dakota, Virginia, and Vermont opened up in September, while states like Kentucky and Oklahoma opened early voting less than a week before Election Day.
Two key swing states—Georgia and North Carolina—saw a record turnout on their first day of early voting this election cycle. Over 310,000 votes were cast in Georgia on Tuesday, and by Friday, over 1 million voters had sent in their decisions either in person or by mail. In North Carolina, election officials reported that more than 353,000 ballots were cast on the first day of early voting.
Some states, including Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, don’t offer any form of early voting unless a voter has a valid excuse, such as military deployment. In places like North Dakota and Pennsylvania, early voting is set up by county officials rather than at the state level, creating a patchwork of regulations across the country.
Who Is Leading the Polls?
Polling has indicated that Harris holds a significant lead among early voters. A survey released Monday by USA Today and Suffolk University showed the vice president leading 63 percent to 34 percent among those who have already voted. However, the same poll found that Trump was ahead by double digits among those who plan to vote on Election Day, leading Harris 52 percent to 35 percent.
According to NBC News, which uses the firm TargetSmart to collect voter data, nearly 14.5 million people have cast a mail-in or in-person ballot in the 2024 election as of Monday. Of these voters, 46 percent are Democrats, while 29 percent are registered Republicans. Notably, a quarter of early voters are not affiliated with either major party.
In several key battleground states, there is nearly an equal amount of registered Democrats and Republicans who have voted early. In Georgia, 49 percent of all early votes have come from Republicans, while 46 percent have come from Democrats. Similar trends are observed in Nevada and North Carolina. In Arizona, registered Republican voters slightly outperform Democrats, 44 percent to 35 percent, illustrating the competitive nature of this election.
When Is Election Day?
Per federal law, Election Day always falls on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. This year, the election will take place on November 5. While Election Day is not recognized as a federal holiday, around a dozen states observe it as a holiday, meaning that most state offices will be closed that day. Additionally, many states provide employees with time off to vote, ensuring greater participation in the electoral process.
What Happens If Trump Loses?
Many experts have warned that Trump and his allies are already sowing doubt about the election results in anticipation of a potential loss. Trump has consistently claimed that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him, asserting that election fraud was rampant. Although there has been no evidence to support these claims, some of Trump’s closest confidants have echoed similar concerns regarding this year’s election systems.
During a news conference in North Carolina, Trump mentioned that he has "not seen" any signs suggesting that this year’s election would not be fair, though he expressed skepticism about "the other side." Unlike four years ago, Trump does not have the same presidential powers to leverage if he is unhappy with the election outcomes this time, but he can contest the results through the legal system as a private citizen.
Trump's campaign has suggested that those who seek to undermine democracy by creating chaos in elections are a direct threat. As we continue to navigate this complex electoral landscape, the implications of early voting and the strategies employed by both parties will be critical to watch as we approach the final days before the election.
How Does This Year Compare to 2020?
The 2020 presidential election, conducted amid the COVID-19 pandemic, saw a record number of early voters, with Democrats turning out in greater numbers than their Republican counterparts. By October 16, 2020, over 22 million Americans had cast a ballot, representing 16 percent of the total votes cast in the 2016 presidential election. At that time, Democrats outvoted Republicans two to one.
According to Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, nearly 60 million people had voted in the general election by October 25, 2020. Democrats continued to outperform Republicans by a two-to-one ratio among mail-in ballots, while the parties were nearly even for those who voted in person. By November 1, 2020, a staggering 93 million ballots had been cast.
The 2020 election experienced the largest increase in voting between presidential elections in U.S. history, with 17 million more people casting ballots than in 2016. As early voting continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the electoral landscape, understanding its impact on the upcoming election is essential for both voters and candidates alike.
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