Kamala Harris: A Surge In 2024 Election Prospects Following New Forecast

Kamala Harris has seen a significant boost in her 2024 election prospects, according to a major new forecast. The latest election forecast from The Economist indicates that Harris now has a 3 in 5 chance of winning the Electoral College in November, compared to Donald Trump’s 2 in 5 chance. This marks the vice president’s strongest position since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate. The forecast also shows that Harris is expected to pick up 281 Electoral College votes, while Trump is expected to win only 257.

Over the past three weeks, Harris’ chances have risen sharply by 10 percent, improving from an even split with Trump on September 8, when both had a 50-50 chance of victory. At that time, the Democrat was predicted to secure 270 Electoral College votes—just enough to win—while the Republican was forecasted to gain 268 votes. Harris’ overall chances of winning the election have also increased by 6 percent since September 8, moving from 52 percent to 58 percent, while Trump’s chances have declined by 7 percent, from 48 to 41 percent.

According to the forecast, the vice president is predicted to win in four key swing states—Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—while Trump is anticipated to triumph in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Trump's spokesperson, Steven Cheung, commented on Harris' campaign by saying, “Kamala Harris is in desperation mode; that’s why she keeps lying about her positions.” This statement underscores the ongoing tension as both candidates vie for voters' support.

It has been another positive week for the vice president in the polls. The most recent Outward Intelligence poll, conducted between September 22 and 26, put Harris 6 points ahead nationally among 1,735 likely voters. Another poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, which was cofounded by former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, found that Harris is 7 points ahead of Trump in a head-to-head matchup, at 52 percent to his 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,005 likely voters between September 23 and 25.

A Clarity Campaign Labs poll from September 24 also put Harris 7 points ahead. However, some polls conducted in the last week, including a survey by Quinnipiac University, put Trump 1 point ahead when third-party candidates were included, while the two nominees were tied in a head-to-head matchup. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted between September 19 and 22 also showed Harris and Trump neck and neck among registered voters when third-party candidates were included.

Despite the fluctuating polls, Harris remains ahead in every polling aggregator. For example, FiveThirtyEight's polling tracker puts the vice president 2.8 points ahead, at 48.6 percent to Trump’s 45.7 percent. The pollster’s forecast also shows Harris has a 57 percent chance of winning the election, expected to secure 283 Electoral votes to the Republican’s 255.

Race to the White House gives Harris a 60 percent chance of winning the election, with 289 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 248. Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver's tracker puts Harris ahead by 3 points; however, his Electoral College predictions have not been as favorable for the Democrat. Silver noted that his model indicates the Electoral College remains a toss-up.

As of Thursday, Silver stated, “Our forecast is that Kamala Harris is a 3:1 favorite in the popular vote—but the Electoral College is basically still a toss-up.” He explained that there is a 20 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, compared to only a 0.3 percent chance of the same scenario occurring for Donald Trump.

The election will ultimately hinge on the results from the seven swing states, which are extremely close. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's forecasts, along with Race to the White House, indicate Trump is predicted to win by just 1 point in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris is expected to win by 1 to 3 points in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

The margins in these swing states are so narrow that they remain highly contested. FiveThirtyEight emphasizes the significance of slim margins in determining the outcome, stating, “This cycle’s presidential race is the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years.”