The Impact Of New U.S. Citizens On Upcoming Elections

An estimated 3.5 million migrants have become U.S. citizens since the 2020 presidential election and could sway the outcome of elections, including the presidential ballot between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This significant increase in citizenship numbers comes amid heightened discussions about immigration policies and their implications for the electoral landscape. As these new citizens prepare to exercise their right to vote, their influence on key battleground states becomes a pivotal factor in the upcoming elections.

Immigration has emerged as a top campaign issue, especially due to record levels of illegal border crossings during President Joe Biden's administration. The Biden administration has expedited the processing of new citizenship applications for legal immigrants, a stark contrast to the slower pace observed during Donald Trump's presidency. This shift has resulted in approximately 3.56 million new voting-age adults becoming eligible since the 2020 election, according to an analysis from the U.S. Immigration Policy Center based on estimates from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data.

"So many [immigrants] are naturalizing with a particular eagerness to vote, which means that their turnout rates could be higher than normal," stated Manuel Pastor, director of the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California. He highlighted that the timing of these naturalizations coincides with immigration becoming a hot-button issue, further emphasizing the potential impact these new voters may have on electoral outcomes.

The largest numbers of new naturalizations occurred in populous states such as California, Florida, New York, and Texas. However, none of these states are considered swing states that will likely determine the presidential election. In contrast, significant numbers of new citizens have emerged in battleground states where the competition is close, particularly between Trump and Harris as they vie for crucial Electoral College votes.

Pennsylvania, for example, where Biden won with a majority of over 80,000 in 2020, experienced an increase of over 70,600 naturalized immigrants from fiscal years 2021 to 2023. This influx could prove decisive in the upcoming election. Furthermore, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin also saw substantial increases in naturalizations, highlighting the changing political dynamics in these competitive regions.

Data from FY 2023 indicates that approximately 37 percent of new voters since 2020 originate from Asia, 33.5 percent from North and Central America, and 11 percent from Africa, with the top five countries of origin being Mexico, India, the Philippines, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic. This diverse demographic landscape adds complexity to understanding the political affiliations of newly naturalized voters.

As the election approaches, it remains uncertain where the political loyalties of these new citizens will lie. While some may be drawn to the Democratic Party's policies, others could align with Republican views, particularly regarding immigration. The political campaigns of both Harris and Trump will need to address the unique concerns of these new residents to effectively engage them.

In conclusion, the growing number of new U.S. citizens represents a significant factor in the upcoming elections. The unique challenges and opportunities presented by their participation in the electoral process will shape the political landscape in ways that could redefine outcomes in key battleground states.