Latest Forecast Shows Kamala Harris' Presidential Odds Decline As Trump Gains Ground

In a tightening race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of winning the presidency have slightly decreased, according to the latest forecast from renowned pollster Nate Silver. The updated projections, released Saturday morning, reveal a drop in Harris' Electoral College chances from 58.1 percent to 57.3 percent over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has seen his prospects improve, rising from 41.7 percent to 42.5 percent.

This shift comes as new polls indicate Trump is gaining ground in crucial swing states. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September 21 to 26 and deemed the most accurate by FiveThirtyEight, Harris holds 48 percent of voter support in Michigan, with Trump closely trailing at 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by a mere 2 points, 49 to 47 percent.

Both results fall well within the polls' margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The surveys included 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 in Wisconsin.

Newsweek reached out to both Harris and Trump's campaign via email on Saturday for comments on the latest developments.

Despite the tightening race, Silver's analysis still indicates that Harris has a slight edge over Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows her leading nationally by about 3 points (48.6 to 45.7 percent). This advantage extends to most swing states, including Pennsylvania, where she leads by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).

Silver's model, known as the Silver Bulletin, provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 presidential election landscape. It integrates polling data, economic indicators, and historical trends to estimate each candidate's likelihood of victory. As of September 27, he noted that Harris' national lead had grown since his previous update.

In his analysis, Silver outlined two potential paths for Harris to secure victory in the Electoral College: winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin or securing North Carolina and Georgia, or both. He mentioned, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we're getting to the point where we'd rather have Harris's hand to play."

However, the race remains incredibly close, with Harris' lead generally within the margin of error in most polls. Silver pointed out that "stranger things have happened" than an underdog candidate winning, especially considering Trump's history of outperforming polls on Election Day.

Recent trends show that Harris is gaining minimal momentum nationally, and in key states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, and Nevada. Meanwhile, Trump has made slight gains in North Carolina, Minnesota, and Texas. According to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages, Trump leads Harris in Georgia by 0.9 points (48.3 to 47.4 percent), in North Carolina by 0.4 points (47.8 to 47.4 percent), and in Arizona by 1.3 points (48 to 46.7 percent).

Minnesota, a traditionally Democratic stronghold, has shifted from "leans Harris" to a "toss-up" according to Real Clear Politics. This shift could be significant for Trump, who hasn't won the state since his first run in 2016. A Republican victory in Minnesota would be historic, as the state hasn't voted for a GOP presidential candidate in the last 12 elections.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, commented, "It's quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race."

Current projections from 270toWin give Harris 226 electoral college votes and Trump 219, with several key states still undecided. The outcomes in states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina could ultimately determine the election winner.

One positive note for the Harris campaign is emerging from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which awards one electoral vote separately from the state's overall results. Recent polling shows Harris as a 91 percent favorite to win this district, potentially providing a crucial buffer in a tight race.

The significance of Pennsylvania in this election cannot be overstated. As a potential tipping point state, it could be the key to either candidate's path to victory. If Harris secures Pennsylvania along with other likely Democratic states, Trump would need to win a combination of Minnesota, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia to clinch the presidency.

Recognizing Pennsylvania's vital role, Trump is ramping up his campaign efforts within the state. He is scheduled to hold a rally in Erie on September 29, followed by another in Butler on October 5. These rallies mark Trump's return to the