Kamala Harris Matches Barack Obama's Popularity Among Democrats In 2024

Recent polling data has revealed that Kamala Harris's popularity among Democrat voters is currently on par with the favorability ratings that Barack Obama enjoyed in 2008. In a newly released Gallup poll, Harris achieved a remarkable 72 percent favorability rating among her party's supporters. This rating is reportedly the highest for a Democratic candidate in nearly 70 years, tying her with Obama just before he was elected president for the first time.

The survey conducted by Gallup compared the favorability ratings of presidential candidates within their own parties for the upcoming 2024 election to those in nearly every election since 1956. Notably, it excluded three election years when such questions were not asked. The missing data points include the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis, the 1996 election between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, and the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

According to the results, the highest party favorability rating recorded was in 1984, when Ronald Reagan garnered 76 percent support from Republicans. Following closely was Donald Trump, whose favorability rating among Republicans was 73 percent in 2020. Remarkably, both Harris and Obama secured the third position overall and the top position among Democratic nominees.

As of 2024, Donald Trump's favorability has seen a decline of five points, now standing at 68 percent. This drop places him in 10th position among Republican nominees and 15th overall, which is four points lower than Harris's rating among her party. When asked for comments, Trump's spokesperson Steven Cheung asserted, "President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community."

Excluding the 2024 results, of the 14 presidential nominees who have achieved the highest favorability ratings among their party's supporters, 10 eventually became elected presidents in the same year the ratings were measured. The notable exceptions include Trump, who had a 73 percent favorability in 2020 but lost to Joe Biden, Richard Nixon, Mitt Romney, and Adlai Stevenson, who all faced similar electoral setbacks despite high initial ratings.

The questions for the 2024 election were posed to a random sample of 1,023 U.S. adults between October 1 and October 12, with a margin of error of 4 points. This polling data is significant, as it not only highlights Harris's standing among Democratic voters but also provides insight into the dynamics of the upcoming election.

This isn't the first time parallels have been drawn between Harris's presidential run and Obama's. In July, many observers noted that the energy and enthusiasm surrounding Harris's campaign echoed the excitement that surrounded Obama's nomination in 2008, when he secured the election with a notable 50 percent of the popular vote and 286 electoral votes.

Despite the strong support from Democrats, Harris still faces considerable challenges in her bid to defeat Trump in the upcoming election. As of Wednesday, FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker indicated that Harris leads nationally by 1.7 points. However, this represents a decline from her previous lead of 2.8 points at the end of September and is significantly lower than the 7-point lead Obama held over John McCain just before the 2008 election.

In light of these developments, it's clear that the race for the White House will be extremely close, and both candidates will need to mobilize their bases effectively to secure victory.

• Four major national polls this week showed Trump ahead of Harris, marking the first time he has led since early August.
• Trump's lead in each poll remains small and within the margin of error, suggesting a tightly contested race.
• The 2024 election landscape is shaping to be one of the most competitive in recent history.