Weather Woes: How Election Day Conditions Could Impact Voter Turnout In 2024

As the 2024 election nears, forecasts show potentially harsh weather across several battleground states, raising concerns that poor conditions could affect voter turnout on November 5. Historical trends suggest that rain, snow, and even cold temperatures often correlate with reduced numbers at the polls, a pattern that could have significant implications in close races.

The election day forecast and map provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) show a chance of poor weather in critical states like Minnesota and Wisconsin. The purple area indicates a slight risk of heavy snow, the beige area indicates a slight risk of heavy winds, and the lime green area shows a slight risk of heavy precipitation.

In Wisconsin, there is a slight light risk of heavy rain in southern parts of the state, a slight risk of high winds for western Minnesota, and a heavy snow risk just short of Arizona. According to the report, "this set-up is favorable for moderate to heavy snow over portions of the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains."

The forecast states a "slight risk for heavy snowfall...from southern Wyoming through most of Colorado and eastern New Mexico for Nov 5-6" and "a half-foot or more of snow could fall on some locations in the higher elevations of Colorado."

Newsweek reached out to NWS and The Weather Center for comment via email on Tuesday.

As reported by Newsweek, a winter storm in Montana and Wyoming has prompted meteorologists to warn that people could get stranded in the mountains should they travel during poor weather conditions.

National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists at the Billings, Montana, office issued the winter storm warning early Tuesday morning. The warning will remain in place for the Pryor Mountains and northern Bighorn Mountains in Montana and the northeast Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming until noon local time on Wednesday.

The warning urged people to delay travel, as up to 20 inches of snow were expected. Poor weather was likely to make Highway 14 travel "very difficult."

Meanwhile, the NWS forecast that "a potent storm system may bring heavy precipitation and high winds to the southern tier of Alaska, with windy conditions possibly extending westward across the Aleutians."

In addition, many voters are still struggling with the after-effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

A 2023 report published in the journal Electoral Studies showed that rainfall on Election Day can reduce voter turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout.

While seemingly small, these numbers could sway tight elections, particularly in swing states where every vote matters. This is especially true for in-person voting, as adverse conditions can make reaching their polling locations difficult, particularly in rural or underserved areas where transportation options may be limited.

Weather-based reductions in turnout may also disproportionately affect specific demographics. Low-income voters, elderly populations, and those without reliable access to transportation could be more heavily impacted, as could those in districts where voting lines tend to be long and polling sites are fewer.

Additionally, areas with high commuter populations might see fewer evening voters if rain or snow creates traffic delays.

Some voters may need to make contingency plans this election cycle, perhaps early voting or voting by mail wherever possible to ensure that their voices are counted, regardless of the weather. Many states now allow early voting windows or absentee ballots without requiring a reason, which can help reduce Election Day pressure.

The NWS or other agencies may also prepare advisories and safety tips to encourage safe travel to and from polling places. With turnout influencing everything from local measures to Senate seats, voting matters—come rain, shine, or snow.