Black Voter Uncertainty In The 2024 Election: A Closer Look

High numbers of Black voters haven’t yet decided who they’re going to vote for in the 2024 election, according to a new survey. Polling from the Alliance for Black Equality, conducted between October 2 and 4, indicates that 10 percent of Black voters are still undecided, with less than 20 days to go until the election. It also shows that Kamala Harris is trailing behind her predecessors among Black voters, with 73 percent of the demographic supporting her, compared to 88 percent for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 87 percent for Joe Biden in 2020.

According to the survey, Harris' declining support is down to a "gender-generation gap" in the Black electorate. Support for both Biden and Harris has been soft among millennial and Gen Z Black voters generally, with about one in four millennial and Gen Z respondents reporting support for Donald Trump. This trend highlights a critical shift in voting dynamics that could have significant implications for the upcoming election.

But support for Harris has been especially weak with Black men in those cohorts. Only 49 percent of Black Gen Z men support Harris, while 40 percent said they back Trump. An estimated 90 percent of Black men voted for Joe Biden in 2020, indicating a substantial decline in support that the Harris campaign will need to address if she hopes to secure a strong voter turnout among this crucial demographic.

Alvin Tillery, founder of Alliance for Black Equality and co-founder of 2040 Strategy Group, pointed out the challenges faced by younger voters. He stated, "These voters are younger, have greater economic precarity, and likely have already had encounters with police that have left them shaken." This sentiment resonates with many Black voters who participated in or engaged with the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020 following the tragic murders of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd.

Newsweek has reached out to both the Trump and Harris campaigns for comments regarding the survey findings. It isn’t the first time polls have shown Harris trailing Biden and Clinton among Black and Black male voters. August analysis by Newsweek revealed that, on average, Harris was polling at 76 percent among Black voters, while Trump was polling at 16 percent.