Ruben Gallego's Rising Momentum In Arizona's Senate Race

Democratic Arizona Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has nearly doubled his lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake for independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema's soon-to-be vacant seat, according to the two most recent Morning Consult state polls. The political landscape in Arizona is shifting dramatically as the race heats up, fueled by recent polling data that indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment. With the upcoming election, all eyes are on Gallego and Lake as they vie for a crucial Senate seat that could influence the balance of power in Washington.

The latest Morning Consult poll of 474 likely voters was conducted primarily after the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, from September 9 to September 18. This poll, which carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, reveals that Gallego has gained 53 percent of the vote compared to Lake's 39 percent, marking a notable 14-point lead. This change reflects a significant jump in support for Gallego, as another poll conducted just prior showed him leading by only 8 points.

As the election approaches, the stakes are high, and both candidates are ramping up their campaigns to capture the attention of Arizona voters. Gallego's recent surge in the polls could be attributed to various factors, including his messaging and the current political climate. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns for comments, highlighting the importance of this Senate race in the context of the upcoming presidential election.

Most individual state polls and aggregators favor Gallego in the Senate race to fill Sinema's seat, however with a smaller margin lead than the latest Morning Consult poll. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 868 likely voters found 48 percent support Gallego, while 42 percent back Lake, with 10 percent undecided. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, indicating that while Gallego maintains a lead, the contest remains competitive.

Lake, a former television news anchor who lost her bid for Arizona governor in 2022 and claimed the election was rigged, has publicly dismissed an August 28 poll suggesting Gallego was ahead by 15 points. In an interview with KTAR radio, she stated, "Nobody wins by 15 points. I put zero stock in these polls," reflecting her skepticism about polling accuracy. The upcoming election is set to be influenced by key issues such as inflation, immigration, abortion, and housing, according to David Byler, Chief of Research at Noble Predictive Insights.

November's election could change control of the Senate, making down-ballot races closely watched as the presidential election is razor thin. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats. With the Cook Political Report now labeling Arizona's Senate seat as "Leans Democratic," it adds further intrigue to an already competitive race.

In 2020, President Joe Biden won Arizona by just 0.4 percent, showcasing the state's importance in national elections. National poll aggregators like FiveThirtyEight show Trump leading Harris by 0.5 percent in Arizona, while The Hill's aggregate puts the two candidates apart by just 0.1 percent, with Trump slightly ahead. As the election draws closer, Arizona's 11 Electoral College votes will be crucial in the broader context of the presidential race.