Over 31 million people have already cast their ballots since early voting began nationwide ahead of next month’s election. The early voter engagement reflects a significant turnout, highlighting the importance citizens place on exercising their democratic rights. As the political landscape heats up, understanding voting patterns can provide insights into potential outcomes.
According to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voter tracker, 32,678,726 people have cast an early vote so far, with more than 14.8 million people voting in person, while 17.8 million people have returned mail-in ballots, as of 8:21 a.m. ET Friday. Moreover, more than 64 million mail-in ballots have been requested, demonstrating the growing trend of absentee voting across the nation.
Among those voters, almost 9 million have emerged from the 7 swing states, which are particularly witnessing a surge in early Republican voters. This trend suggests that the upcoming election could be closely contested, especially in these pivotal regions.
Last week, officials reported record-breaking early voting turnout in key swing states, including Georgia and North Carolina. In Georgia, approximately 2.3 million ballots have already been cast, with 328,000 cast on the first day, more than doubling the previous record of 136,000 set in 2020, when President Joe Biden narrowly won the state. North Carolina also set a new early voting record, with over 353,000 votes on the first day alone. As of Friday, more than 2.2 million ballots had been cast in the state, according to tracking data.
Overall, early voting trends suggest an advantage for Democrats, who generally vote earlier and by mail more frequently than Republicans. According to the University of Florida’s voting tracker, over 6.6 million registered Democrats have voted early, compared to 5.8 million Republicans. However, while more Democrats have cast their votes, early data from the swing states indicates a surge in early Republican turnout following former President Donald Trump’s recent encouragement for his supporters to cast ballots before Election Day. “I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump stated on a recent podcast hosted by Dan Bongino.
Moreover, Republican voters appear to be responding positively to this call. In Nevada, where Democrats typically rely on early voting to counter Republican Election Day turnout, data from the University of Florida shows that as of Friday, about 22,000 more Republicans than Democrats had voted early. In Arizona, where more than 1 million votes have already been cast, Republicans account for 42 percent of those votes, while Democrats represent 35 percent, according to tracking data. North Carolina has shown a smaller gap, with 34.4 percent of early voters registered as Republicans and 33.6 percent as Democrats.
While Michigan, Georgia, and Wisconsin do not track party registration for early voters, Pennsylvania reports that 59 percent of over 1.2 million early ballots are from Democrats, compared to 30 percent from Republicans. This disparity in voter turnout highlights the varying strategies and demographics influencing the early voting landscape.
According to 538’s tracker, Harris is leading by a slim margin of between 0.1 and 0.7 points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. A month ago, she led in these three states by up to 2.4 points. Meanwhile, Trump leads by between 1.2 and 1.8 points in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. He is also leading by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania, where Harris had been leading since moving to the top of the Democratic ticket.
Pollster Nate Silver's forecast shows that if Harris won only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, her chances increase to 98.9 percent. However, according to Silver's model, there is only a 2.9 percent likelihood of this scenario occurring.
Silver’s forecast also illustrates a 24 percent chance of Trump winning every swing state in November. Early voting is available in some form across 48 of the 50 states. As of 2024, Alabama and Mississippi remain the only states without universal early voting, where constituents need an approved reason to cast an absentee ballot.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
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