Fridays are always fun in the NBA, as they are consistently one of the biggest slates of the week. Today is no different, of course, with 10 games on tap tonight. The action starts with Nets-Magic and 76ers-Raptors at 7 p.m. ET, with the Suns vs. Lakers at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN standing out as the highlight of the night. For this article, we will be providing the best NBA player prop picks for today, Oct. 25.
Jalen Brunson 30+ Points (+105) FanDuel
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
We were on Brunson's points on opening night and that did not come to fruition, but that game ended up being a blowout from the first quarter, and Brunson still did not have that bad of a game. He scored 15 points in the first half, but the Knicks were down by 30 points, so he did not play at all in the third quarter.
Brunson played well and looked like he was, once again, the person who was going to do everything on the Knicks. He had an absurd 37 percent usage rate, which would have led the NBA by a mile last year, when his usage rate of 31 percent was the sixth-highest in the NBA of all qualified players.
Last year, the Pacers allowed the most points per game to pick-and-roll (PnR) ball handlers, the second-most points per game via isolation and overall, they got cooked by their opponents' No. 1, highest-usage players. It has only been one game, but it appears as though high-usage players are going to continue to cook against the Pacers just like they did last year, as Cade Cunningham went off for 28 points against Indiana in the season opener on Wednesday.
Brunson ran the fourth-most PnR in the NBA as the ball handler, averaging the most field goal attempts in the league, and the fourth-most points, out of the PnR. He played well in these matchups against the Pacers last year, including the playoffs. Of the eight games vs. Indiana in which he played 32 or more minutes, he scored 30-plus points in five of them.
Jalen Brunson 30+ points (+105): 1 Unit
Damian Lillard 8+ Assists (+120) FanDuel
Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
This is the perfect buy-low spot on Lillard's assists after he did a quietly great job facilitating in the first game of the year, and he has a plus matchup tonight against the Bulls. Lillard ended up only having six assists in the Bucks' first game of the year, but, more importantly, he had 18 potential assists.
He was one of five players that had at least 18 potential assists in the first game of the year, and he was the only one who did not get to double-digit assists. According to NBA.com, his adjusted assists number said that he should have had eight assists, which is still a low potential-assist-to-assist ratio.
With Khris Middleton out, Lillard should continue to have a high usage and pass rate, and now he gets a great matchup against a Bulls defense that just got shredded in terms of assists in the first game of the year. The Bulls gave up the most points to the roll man of all teams to start the year, which is perfect for a high usage PnR guard like Lillard.
Damian Lillard 8+ assists (+120): 1 Unit
Steph Curry 8+ Assists (+155) Caesars
Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz, 9:30 p.m. ET
Curry had a great assist game in the first game of the year, with 10 dimes in just 25 minutes in the Warriors' 140-104 win over Portland. He also has a great matchup to do the same thing against Utah. The Jazz were a dream opponent for point guard assist props last year, and that has continued through one game this year.
We targeted the Jazz with a point guard assists prop on Wednesday with Grizzlies star Ja Morant, and he came through for us. In that game, Morant had 19 potential assists, 10 actual assists and 12 adjusted assists, according to NBA.com. It is all about the style of defense that the Jazz play, which leads them to giving up a ton of assists via catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities, and to the roll man on the PnR as well.
Last year, the Jazz allowed the fourth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers at 27.4 per game, and in the first game this year, they allowed the Grizzlies to attempt 37, which was the second-most of all NBA teams. Curry dominated this matchup from an assist perspective last year.
Steph Curry 8+ assists (+155): 0.50 Units
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