Impact Of Kamala Harris's Potential Presidential Victory On Congressional Control

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, there is a chance that Democrats will also have control of both chambers of Congress, creating the best scenario for the nominee to get policies through, a strategist told Newsweek. This pivotal moment could reshape the legislative landscape in the United States. As election projections suggest a favorable outcome for Democrats, the implications of such a victory extend beyond the presidency, potentially facilitating significant legislative action in various policy areas.

Recent analysis indicates that Democrats have a fighting chance to retain control of the Senate and reclaim the House from Republicans. Concerns over President Joe Biden's impact on down-ballot races were significant factors in his decision to withdraw from the race, leading to Harris becoming the Democratic nominee. If successful, she would inherit a unique advantage that Biden currently lacks, potentially allowing her to implement her policy agenda effectively.

During Joe Biden's presidency, Democrats had control of both the House and Senate but lost the House in the 2022 midterms. If Harris secures the presidency while also leading a Democratic-controlled Congress, it would offer her a rare opportunity to fulfill campaign promises that align with her administration's goals. According to Michael Gordon, a principal at Group Gordon, “Typically, a president's biggest opportunity to pass their legislative agenda is in their first two years in office.” This timeframe is crucial for Harris, as she could push through significant legislative packages if the Democrats regain control of both chambers.

House Projections

The current composition of the House includes 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with every seat up for election. Notably, not all seats are contested due to some being open. The Cook Political Report's House race ratings provide insight into the competitiveness of all 435 House elections for 2024. As of September 6, 174 races are categorized as "solid Democrat," while 192 are labeled "solid Republican."

If the ratings hold true, Democrats are expected to secure 203 seats, whereas Republicans are projected to win 208 seats. This scenario highlights that control of the House could hinge on 24 toss-up races, including 13 involving incumbent Republicans and 9 involving incumbent Democrats. Additionally, two previously Democratic-held seats in Michigan are now open.

To gain control of the House, Democrats would need to win at least 15 of the toss-up races, while Republicans would need to win 10. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, views control of the House as a 50-50 proposition, emphasizing that the race remains highly competitive. Although Republicans may retain control by splitting the open seats evenly, there is optimism that Democrats will perform better than expected in the upcoming elections.

Senate Outlook

Currently, Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate with a 51-49 split, aided by the four independents who caucus with them. The Cook Political Report anticipates that this margin will remain stable after the upcoming election. Despite these projections, it is vital to note that Democrats do not possess the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster, meaning that Harris would still need to collaborate with Republicans to secure votes on significant issues.

As Gordon points out, controlling both Houses of Congress doesn’t guarantee the passage of all proposed legislation. The real challenge lies in the possibility of Republicans controlling even one chamber, which could significantly hinder legislative progress. The upcoming election is not just about the presidency but also about determining the balance of power in Congress, which will shape the future of American politics.

Correction 10/2/24 4:40 p.m. ET: This article and headline have been updated to correct the timeline of Congressional majorities.