Joe Biden's Reelection Chances: Insights From Betting Odds And Political Pressure

Joe Biden only has a five percent chance of being reelected as president in November according to a leading betting website, as pressure on the 81-year-old Democratic incumbent to pull out continues to grow from within his own party. As the political landscape shifts, the focus on Biden's viability as a candidate intensifies. With key figures from his own party questioning his candidacy, the implications for his campaign strategy are significant.

As of 8 a.m. ET on Friday, Republican nominee Donald Trump has a 63 percent probability of winning the presidency, according to Polymarket. Following him is Vice President Kamala Harris with a 22 percent chance, Michelle Obama at four percent, and California Governor Gavin Newsom with one percent. This polling illustrates the challenges Biden faces as he navigates a competitive political environment.

Overall, Biden is polling in fourth place, not only behind his chief Republican rival and vice president but also behind other Democratic politicians, who have been calculated to have a seven percent chance of victory. The debate surrounding Biden's age and mental fitness surged after his first presidential debate with Trump on June 27, where he appeared to lose his train of thought mid-sentence. This has fueled speculation about his capability for another term.

In recent weeks, there has been a noticeable increase in calls from prominent Democrats, including members of Congress, urging Biden to step aside from the contest. They believe a different nominee could enhance the party's chances in the upcoming election. Biden's odds of winning in November have also worsened substantially, dropping from 6/1 (14.3 percent) on Thursday to 12/1 (7.7 percent) according to the U.K.-based betting company Betfair. Newsweek reached out to Biden's 2024 presidential election campaign for comment outside of usual office hours.

CBS News reported that Biden might announce he is withdrawing from the 2024 race within the next three days, based on information from two unidentified senior House Democrats. The uncertainty surrounding his candidacy raises questions about the future of his campaign and the Democratic party as a whole.

The Washington Post reported, citing three anonymous Democratic officials, that Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi has expressed confidence that she can persuade Biden to withdraw from the race. This growing sentiment among party leaders highlights the tension within the Democratic party as the election approaches.

On Wednesday, during a BET interview, Biden was asked if anything would prompt him to reevaluate his bid for a second term. He responded, "If I had some medical condition that emerged if somebody—if doctors came to me and said, 'you got this problem, that problem.'" Just hours later, Biden confirmed he tested positive for coronavirus, prompting him to isolate while he recovers.

In a post on social media, Biden stated, "I tested positive for COVID-19 this afternoon, but I am feeling good and thank everyone for the well wishes. I will be isolating as I recover, and during this time I will continue to work to get the job done for the American people." This incident has further complicated the dynamics of his campaign as he navigates both health challenges and political pressures.

On Thursday, Trump formally accepted the Republican presidential nomination at the party's convention in Milwaukee, sharing a vision of a brighter future for America. He declared, "America's future will be bigger, better, bolder, brighter, happier, stronger, freer, greater and more united than ever before. Quite simply put, we will very quickly make America great again." His message resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, contrasting sharply with Biden's current standing.

Remarkably, this announcement came just five days after Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt during one of his rallies in Pennsylvania, where a gunman opened fire. Tragically, one audience member lost their life in the incident, while the attacker was shot dead by security forces. This tumultuous backdrop adds to the complexity of the political landscape as the election approaches.