Polling Insights Ahead Of The U.S. Election: What The Latest Numbers Reveal

With just a few days to go until the U.S. Election on November 5, Newsweek has broken down what the polls are saying in each swing state. This year's race is extremely tight, with victory in sight for either the Republican nominee Donald Trump or the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. The seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are likely to be the ones to decide which one wins a term in the White House, and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, has forecast that Trump could win every one of them. Here is what the polls say.

Arizona Polls

As of Sunday, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Trump ahead, with 48.7 percent over Harris' 46.8 percent, with the latest three polls putting Trump in the lead as well. Similarly, the Trafalgar Group, a political consulting firm, found Trump had 48 percent support and Harris had 46 percent out of the 1,094 respondents who were questioned between October 24 and 26. The survey has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

Trump enjoyed the exact same 2-point lead (48 percent – 46 percent) in a poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph. The UK-based market and research company polled 7,362 swing state voters across all seven swing states between October 20 and 22. Redfield and Wilton Strategies does not disclaim its margin of error but it says: "In every state polled the candidates are either tied or the lead for either Trump or Harris is within the margin of error."

Marist College, which conducted its latest survey a little earlier this month, between October 17 and 22, also has Trump in the lead, but with a 1-point margin (50 percent to 49 percent). Some 1,193 people were questioned, and the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Georgia Polls

FiveThirtyEight averages Trump's lead in Georgia at 48.6 percent as of Monday. While the latest two polls also gave Trump the lead, a third tied him and Harris. Out of the 1,087 people questioned by the Trafalgar Group between October 24 and October 26, 48 percent said they would vote for Trump and 46 percent said they would vote for Harris. The margin of error is 2.9 percent.

In a swing states poll carried out by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, in which 1,168 people were questioned, Trump had 48 percent over Harris' 46 percent. But Marist College found support for both candidates even, with 49 percent backing each one—out of the 1,193 people surveyed between October 17 and October 22. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

Michigan Polls

Harris has a razor-thin lead in Michigan, according to FiveThirtyEight, with 47.6 percent over Trump's 47.3 percent, but the most recent three polls had Trump in the lead for two of them and another tie. Political consulting firm Insider Advantage found that 48.4 percent of the 800 likely voters it interviewed between October 26 and October 17 supported Trump while 47.4 percent supported Harris. The poll has a margin of error of 3.46 percent.

Conservative-leaning polling organization Patriot Polling gave Trump a 50 percent lead over Harris' 49 percent after questioning 796 registered voters between October 24 and October 26. The margin of error is three percentage points. Meanwhile, Redfield and Wilton Strategies' swing state poll, which surveyed 1,115 people for its Michigan research, had Trump and Harris coming out even with 47 percent.

Nevada Polls

FiveThirtyEight has given Trump a 0.2 percentage point margin, with a tiny lead of 47.5 percent over Harris' 47.3 percent as of Sunday. Like Michigan, two out of the last three polls had Trump ahead, and candidates came out even in the third. Redfield and Wilton Strategies put Trump at 47 percent and Harris at 46 percent after interviewing 540 likely voters, while OnMessage gave Trump 50 percent and Harris 46 percent after questioning 600 people between October 19 and 22. The margin of error is four percentage points.

Trump and Harris came out with 48 percent in InsiderAdvantage's survey carried out between October 19 and 20 when 800 likely voters were surveyed. The margin of error is 3.52 percent.

North Carolina Polls

Trump is also in the lead in North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight's averages, with 48.4 percent over Harris' 47.1 percent as of Monday. Trump also had the lead in each of the three most recent polls. Emerson College questioned 950 likely voters between October 21 and 22 and found that Trump came out on top with 50 percent, while Harris was 2 points behind with 48 percent. The margin